Aaron Chalfin

University of Pennsylvania Website

Aaron Chalfin is an Associate Professor of Criminology at the University of Pennsylvania. He holds a Ph.D. in Public Policy from the University of California, Berkeley.

Voting History

Pretrial detention

Reducing the number of people detained pretrial will lead to a net increase in crime in the medium- to long-term.

Vote Confidence
Disagree 6
Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree 7
Comments

Two important papers (Dobbie, Goldin & Yang; Leslie & Pope) find that pre-trial detention incapacitates offenders and increases public safety in the short run but increases re-offending in the longer-run with offsetting effects over a medium-term horizon (2 years). A recent paper on non-prosecution by Agan, Doleac and Harvey also suggests that a net increase in crime isn't likely. That said, there may be subpopulations (eg, gun arrestees) for whom effects could be quite different.

Ending the use of cash bail will meaningfully reduce the number of people detained pretrial.

Vote Confidence
Agree 5
Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree 7
Comments

Recent work by Ouss and Stevenson suggests that when prosecutors stop asking for bail, it can make a big difference. But the answer to this question is likely to be informed by the changing nature of politics and the institutional details of CJ reform. What options does the judge have? What replaces cash bail? Is bail reform accompanied by other reforms? Cash bail is a tool that judges often use to detain defendants but, depending on what is allowed, judges could simply remand more defendants.

Using risk assessment to inform detention decisions will meaningfully reduce the number of people detained pretrial.

Vote Confidence
Neutral/No Opinion 1
Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Neutral/No Opinion 5
Comments

Tough question. Kleinberg et al shows us that algorithms could be deployed to either shrink pre-trial detention or improve public safety, depending upon the normative goal of the social planner. Stevenson and Doleac finds that judges' positions are shifted by risk scores, though maybe less so over time. So a lot depends on (a) how actuarially fair a risk tool is and (b) whether the ultimate policy goal is to shrink jail populations or improve safety. I don't know how this will play out.